Geopolitical Tensions in Bangladesh: The Power Struggle and India’s Role Today, we are discussing a critical geopolitical issue unfolding in our neighborhood—Bangladesh. In recent days, reports have emerged about a possible coup in Bangladesh, with the military chief, General Waker Uz Zaman, allegedly facing immense pressure. Pakistan’s ISI is actively attempting to destabilize the country by supporting radical Islamist groups.
But what exactly is happening in Bangladesh? Why is Pakistan interested? And what should India’s approach be? Let’s break it down in simple terms.
Current Situation in Bangladesh
Bangladesh has been experiencing political instability for quite some time. In early 2024, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted, and Mohammad Yunus became the new leader, reportedly backed by Western nations. However, the real power lies with Bangladesh’s Army Chief, General Waker Uz Zaman, who has been resisting attempts by Pakistan to turn Bangladesh into an anti-India Islamist state.
Recently, reports emerged that a section of the Bangladeshi military was allegedly involved in a silent coup attempt. Some high-ranking officers were removed from their positions as they were believed to have links with Pakistan’s ISI. Despite these challenges, General Waker Uz Zaman has managed to keep the situation under control.
Pakistan’s Role in Bangladesh’s Destabilization
Pakistan has been attempting to radicalize Bangladesh for years. The goal is to install a pro-Pakistan, anti-India government that would serve as a puppet for their interests. Here’s how Pakistan is trying to achieve this:
- Military Infiltration: Pakistan has reportedly been influencing key officials within the Bangladeshi military, trying to turn them against General Waker Uz Zaman.
- Radicalization of Islamist Groups: Radical extremist groups have resurfaced in Bangladesh, many of which were previously inactive for years. Some of these groups are banned even in Pakistan, yet they are now openly conducting rallies in Bangladesh.
- Propaganda & Fake News: Pakistan’s intelligence network is spreading misinformation to create chaos and instability in Bangladesh.
If General Waker Uz Zaman is removed, Bangladesh could become an unstable country with growing extremist influences, directly threatening India’s security.
Why is India Concerned?
India shares a long border with Bangladesh, and any instability there can have serious consequences for India, such as:
- Security Threats: A radicalized Bangladesh could become a breeding ground for anti-India activities, terrorism, and illegal infiltration.
- Economic Concerns: Trade and economic cooperation between India and Bangladesh could suffer significantly.
- Strategic Importance: Bangladesh plays a crucial role in India’s Act East Policy and connectivity projects. A stable Bangladesh is vital for India’s regional influence.
India’s Approach & Policy on Bangladesh
India has taken a cautious approach to the crisis in Bangladesh. External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar has publicly stated that India was aware of the growing anti-Sheikh Hasina sentiment but chose not to interfere directly.
Why?
- Direct involvement could be used as propaganda by pro-Pakistan elements to claim that India is interfering in Bangladesh’s internal matters.
- Instead, India is closely monitoring the situation, maintaining diplomatic relations, and ensuring that Bangladesh does not fall into Pakistan’s trap.
However, India must remain vigilant. If radical elements gain power in Bangladesh, India might have to take proactive steps to safeguard its national interests.
What Lies Ahead?
Bangladesh is heading towards uncertain times. Three possibilities could unfold:
- General Waker Uz Zaman Retains Power – If he successfully controls the radical elements and stabilizes the country, Bangladesh will continue to remain neutral.
- A Military Coup Happens – If the radical factions gain control of the military, Bangladesh could descend into chaos.
- An Islamist Uprising – If Pakistan-backed extremist groups manage to take over, Bangladesh could turn into an anti-India state.
The next 3-6 months are crucial, and major developments are expected. India must be prepared for any scenario.
Conclusion
Bangladesh is at a crossroads. Its stability is essential for South Asia’s peace and prosperity. While India maintains a neutral stance, it must ensure that Pakistan’s plans to radicalize Bangladesh do not succeed.