For a long time, many in Japan admired Donald Trump. His strong stance on immigration, his tough talk against China, and his promises to protect US allies resonated with certain groups in Japan. During his presidency, some Japanese citizens even held rallies in his support, waving American flags and calling for his re-election.
However, recent developments have left many of these supporters feeling uncertain, if not betrayed. Trump’s latest comments on the US-Japan defense pact have sparked controversy and concern in Japan. He called the agreement “unfair” and questioned why the US should defend Japan when Japan is not obligated to reciprocate.
This shift in Trump’s stance has raised critical questions:
• Will the US continue to guarantee Japan’s security?
• Can Japan rely on American military protection in case of a conflict with China or North Korea?
• Should Japan strengthen its own military instead of depending on the US?
The US-Japan Defense Pact: A One-Sided Agreement?
Since the end of World War II, Japan has relied on the US for defense under a security treaty. The deal states that if Japan is attacked, the US will step in to protect it. However, Japan is not obligated to defend the US in return.
Trump’s argument is that Japan benefits significantly from this agreement without contributing enough in return. He believes that the US military presence in Japan is too costly and does not serve American interests. This has alarmed many in Japan, as it threatens the foundation of their national security strategy.
Japan’s Military Weakness: A Self-Made Problem?
For decades, Japan has kept its military spending low, relying on US protection. But now, as Trump questions the US-Japan alliance, Japan finds itself in a difficult position.
One major issue is Japan’s declining birth rate, which has led to a severe shortage of military recruits. Reports indicate that Japan’s self-defense forces are struggling to attract new soldiers. Many young Japanese prefer stable corporate jobs over military service.
Why Is This a Big Problem?
• If the US withdraws its security guarantees, Japan could be left vulnerable to threats from China and North Korea.
• Japan’s military is not strong enough to defend itself without significant expansion and modernization.
• The country now faces the difficult decision of whether to increase military spending or find new security partnerships.
The India Factor: A New Strategic Partnership?
With doubts over the US alliance, Japan is looking for new security partners, and India has emerged as a key player. Over the past few years, Japan and India have strengthened their military and economic ties. Japan has even pledged support for India’s Vision 2047, which aims to make India a developed nation.
This shift highlights a broader trend: Asian nations are realizing they need to take security into their own hands instead of relying on Western powers.
The Lesson for Other Countries
Trump’s stance on Japan is a warning for all US allies. Defense pacts that seem beneficial in the short term can become a liability in the long run. Countries that rely too much on external security guarantees may one day find themselves abandoned.
For Japan, the message is clear:
1. It must increase its defense spending and military strength.
2. It must diversify its strategic partnerships beyond the US.
3. It cannot afford to rely entirely on American protection.
Conclusion: A Wake-Up Call for Japan
Japan’s once-strong support for Trump has turned into deep uncertainty. As Trump signals a shift in US foreign policy, Japan is being forced to rethink its defense strategy. The coming years will determine whether Japan can adapt to this new reality or whether it will remain vulnerable in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.