India’s Indus
Water Treaty Suspension is Breaking Pakistan Inside
Pakistan’s Sindh Province on the Brink: Water Crisis Sparks Violent Revolt
The province of Sindh in Pakistan is literally on fire — not metaphorically, not due to economic success, and certainly not because of a celebratory event. Violent protests have erupted across major towns and cities, triggered by the worsening water crisis. At least two people have been killed, and enraged citizens have set ablaze the house of a local minister. Armed protestors wielding AK-47s have taken to the streets, sending a clear message: “We will not die of thirst while the state favors one province over another.”
Why Indians Must Pay Attention
While India debates cricket retirements or Bollywood reviews, there’s an urgent need to understand how water — not ideology or religion — may be the most destabilizing force in Pakistan today. What’s happening in Sindh is not a temporary law-and-order issue. It’s a regional rebellion in the making. Understanding where Pakistan is breaking internally — especially on issues like water sharing — is crucial for India’s geopolitical and humanitarian calculations.
The Root of the Crisis: Indus River and Punjab’s Water Grab
Sindh depends almost entirely on the Indus River for its drinking water, agriculture, and survival. The river originates in Tibet, flows through Ladakh, enters Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and then nourishes Pakistan — first Punjab, then Sindh.
Here’s the problem: Punjab province in Pakistan, which holds disproportionate power in Islamabad, is building multiple canals to divert Indus water for its own use. These canals are part of the Cholistan Canal Project, aimed at irrigating the Cholistan Desert — a largely uninhabited arid region near India’s Rajasthan border.
Meanwhile, Sindh’s fields dry up. Water supply in many parts of the province is down by over 50%, and rainfall this year was 52% below average. Traditionally, rainwater harvesting offered some relief. Not anymore. Now, with reduced river flow and scarce rainfall, the situation has turned desperate.
Indus Waters Treaty Suspension: India’s Role and Its Ripple Effect
India recently suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, citing Pakistan’s misuse of the arrangement and ongoing hostilities. While India hasn’t stopped all water flow (doing so would require major dam infrastructure), it has started cutting the flow marginally — especially during lean months.
This has unintentionally exposed Pakistan’s internal contradictions. With less water flowing in from India, and Punjab hoarding what’s left, Sindh is being starved.
If the Punjab government completes the Cholistan canal system, Sindh’s people fear complete drought, crop failures, and water-starved towns. This is no longer just a fear — it is materializing in real time.
Protests, Violence, and What Comes Next
From Karachi to Larkana, violent demonstrations are becoming frequent. Protestors have:
- Burned government buildings and police vehicles
- Openly clashed with law enforcement
- Declared the Punjab-centric policies of Islamabad as unjust and colonial
- Demanded that construction on Punjab’s canals be stopped immediately
There’s a rising call in parts of Sindh for autonomy — even independence. Many believe that if Punjab can monopolize national resources without accountability, Sindh has the moral right to demand separation.
Pakistan’s Unequal Federalism: A Country for Punjab Alone?
The situation isn’t limited to Sindh. In Balochistan, decades of resource extraction and military suppression have already ignited a full-blown separatist movement. Now, Sindhis feel equally betrayed.
Pakistan’s government, heavily dominated by Punjabi elites and military leadership, has consistently sidelined the smaller provinces. While Punjab receives water, infrastructure, and attention, Sindh is left to fend for itself. The canal-building spree is just the latest evidence of this bias.
The Cholistan project, in particular, has become a lightning rod. Punjab seeks to “green” the desert — not for food security, but to expand its agricultural base and support influential landowners. Sindh’s people, by contrast, are losing their drinking water.
India’s Moral and Strategic Dilemma
From a geopolitical perspective, India should monitor the Sindh revolt closely. It raises significant questions:
- Should India highlight the Sindh water crisis in international forums?
- Should India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty be framed as a humanitarian wake-up call rather than an act of aggression?
- If Sindh demands autonomy, should India extend moral or diplomatic support — as it once did with Bangladesh in 1971?
There is a compelling humanitarian argument. If a central government denies a province the right to survive, and prioritizes elite interests over basic human needs, it loses moral legitimacy. If Punjab keeps draining Sindh dry, what alternative does Sindh have?
A Warning of What’s to Come
In the coming months, we can expect:
- More widespread protests across Sindh
- Crackdowns by the Pakistani military
- Possible media blackouts and narrative control from Islamabad
- Rising anti-Punjab sentiment across Pakistan’s smaller provinces
And potentially — a larger regional crisis if these internal fractures become permanent.
India, and the world, must stop viewing Pakistan as a monolith. It is cracking from within, and water — not war — may be its undoing.