Water Conflict Brewing Between Pakistan and Afghanistan: A Looming Crisis
In the coming 5 to 10 years, the world may witness a serious water-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Unlike the India-Pakistan scenario — where the presence of nuclear weapons and international mediation makes a full-scale war unlikely — tensions between Kabul and Islamabad are intensifying with far fewer checks and balances in place.
Afghanistan’s Shift in Water Policy
Afghanistan has made it clear: it will build dams on rivers that flow into Pakistan. One of the most notable examples is the Kunar River, which originates in Afghanistan and merges with the Kabul River before entering Pakistan, eventually flowing into the Indus. General Mubeen of the Taliban was recently seen on video declaring, “This water is like blood to us. We cannot let our blood flow into another country.” The message is unambiguous — Afghanistan plans to use its water resources primarily for its own electricity generation and agricultural needs.
India’s Strategic Role
India is playing a significant, though indirect, role in this development. Having already built the Salma Dam (also known as the India-Afghanistan Friendship Dam) on the Hari River, India is now looking to help construct the Shahtoot Dam near Kabul. This dam would provide clean drinking water to over 2 million Afghans. Importantly, while the Hari River does not impact Pakistan, the Shahtoot and future Kunar river projects certainly will.
India has also recently reinitiated official-level contact with the Taliban, hinting at a broader strategic engagement. Infrastructure projects like dams could soon become a powerful geopolitical tool for India in the region.
Why This Matters for Pakistan
Pakistan has long relied on water from both the Indus and the rivers that flow in from Afghanistan. With India already reducing Pakistan’s access under the suspended Indus Water Treaty, Afghanistan’s water control could lead to a significant crisis. Pakistani officials have gone so far as to say that the construction of a dam like Shahtoot could be considered “an act of war.”
If Afghanistan proceeds with dam projects on the Kunar River — which merges into the Kabul and eventually Indus — the combined impact of water scarcity could be devastating for Pakistan, especially in regions like Punjab and Sindh, where agriculture is heavily dependent on river water.
The Broader Picture
Afghanistan has among the least arable land in the region, and even that is mostly uncultivated due to water shortages. Unlike Pakistan or India, which rank among the top countries globally in terms of arable land, Afghanistan struggles to sustain basic agriculture. Without better water management — including dam-building — its population growth and food security will remain under threat.
Critically, there is no formal water treaty between Afghanistan and Pakistan, unlike the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan. This lack of an established framework makes conflict far more likely.
A Future of Hydro-Politics
The geopolitics of South Asia are shifting. Water is emerging as not just a resource, but a weapon — one that countries like India and Afghanistan may leverage for strategic gains. With no treaty, little trust, and high stakes, the region could be heading towards a water war that would reshape the political and humanitarian landscape of South Asia.
Afghanistan has the right to use its water. But as it asserts that right, and with India’s possible support, Pakistan may be left with no choice but to confront a new reality — one where its access to water is no longer guaranteed.
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